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FxPro浦汇:安倍宣布 2650 亿美元的刺激,日本银行压力上升

2016/7/28 20:33:59 分类: 股市期货

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摘要:日本银行将在七月二十九日周五宣布货币政策声明以及利率决议。市场预期日本银行可能会出台刺激措施,甚至在目前 -0.1% 的利率的基础上降低利率。

by Simon Smith, Chief Economist


The Bank of Japan will its announce monetary policy statement along with interest rate decision on Friday 29th July. Market expectations are that BoJ will likely implement stimulus measures, even a rate cut further lower than the current negative rate of 0.1 %.

日本银行将在七月二十九日周五宣布货币政策声明以及利率决议。市场预期日本银行可能会出台刺激措施,甚至在目前 -0.1% 的利率的基础上降低利率。

Ahead of the BoJ’s statement, on Wednesday 27th July Kyodo News reported that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced an economic stimulus package sized over 28 trillion yen ($265 billion). The timing for the statement to be released was sensitive, it seems like Abe is putting pressure on the BoJ. In addition, recently the size of the stimulus package reported varies, Abe’s announcement yesterday has shed light on it.

日本银行发布声明之前,也就是七月二十七日周三,日本共同社报道说日本首相安倍晋三宣布一揽子经济刺激计划,涉及金额高达 28 万亿日元(2650 亿美元)。此次声明的时机相当敏感,看起来安倍在给日本银行施加压力。此外,刺激措施涉及的金额在不同报道中都有所不同,不过昨天安倍的声明解决了这个问题。

The Japanese government has submitted the latest fiscal stimulus plan to the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, emphasising the importance of co-operation between the government and the central bank, aiming at grappling with deflation and meeting both the 2% inflation and 600 trillion GDP targets. As a result, BoJ is under pressure to meet the goals and will likely implement stimulus measures by all means.

日本政府已经把最新的财政刺激措施方案提交给了经济和货币事务委员会,并强调了政府与央行合作的重要性,目的就是要与通缩作战,达到 2% 的通胀以及 600 万亿 GDP的两个目标。因此,日本银行要到这些目的压力不小,有可能会竭尽全力来实行这些刺激措施。

Japanese government had implemented a number of fiscal stimulus packages, structural economic reforms and loosening monetary policies, to deal with deflation since Abeconomics started in the end of 2012. Nevertheless, the outcomes were not in line with the government’s expectations, inflation and consumption has remained static.

日本政府已经施行了一些财政刺激计划,结构性经济改革,并放松了一些货币政策,以解决从 2012 年底安倍经济学开始后出现的通缩问题。不过,处理的结果并不能符合政府的预期,通胀和消费仍然没有什么变化。

In the recent years, overseas demand has slowed down and the yen has strengthened, resulting in the decline of corporate profits leading to the lowering of average wages and household incomes, weighing on the economy. As a result, Shinzo Abe was vigorous announcing monetary easing as soon as the ruling coalition won the election on 10th July. Hence, no action from the BoJ is unlikely at this meeting, with the inflation and GDP targets yet to be reached. 

最近几年,海外需求已经放缓,而日元则在走强,导致企业利润下降,以及平均工资和家庭收入的降低,这种局面影响到了经济。因此,七月十日执政的联合政府赢得选举之后,安倍晋三马上宣布要实施货币宽松。于是这次会议上估计日本银行会全力以赴,因为通胀和 GDP 两个目标还没有达到。

Apart from keeping an eye on the BoJ’s monetary policy meeting. The trend of the dollar also needs to be taken into account.

我们出了要关注日本银行的货币政策会议,还要注意美元的趋势。

Yesterday evening the Fed announced that rates remain unchanged, which is in line with market expectations, indicating that the economy recovery is not solid enough for a rate hike.

昨天晚上美联储宣布不改变利率,这和市场的预期一致,也意味着美国经济恢复还不够稳固,不能马上开始加息。

After the decision was announced, the dollar future index dived, rapidly breaking through the downside uptrend support level at 96.73. In addition, the KD and the ADX indicators of daily time frame both show a bearish reversal.

利率决议宣布之后,美元期货指数跳水,迅速突破上行支撑点 96.73。此外,每日 KD 和 ADX 指标都出现做空逆转。

USDJPY also tumbled after the Fed’s announcement. On the 4 hourly chart, while the news was released, the price pulled back after testing the upside downtrend line resistance at 105.70. The price has been oscillating in the downtrend channel and forming a consolidation pattern since 21st July, currently holds above the support level at 104.60. In terms of the Ichimoku indicator, the price section has been moving into the cloud from above on 26th July, indicating a bearish reversal.

美联储声明发布后,美元日元有所震动。从四小时图表上来看,新闻发布后价格在尝试了顶部下行通道阻力点 105.70 后开始回拉。从七月二十日开始,价格在下行通道内震荡,并形成了一个稳定的模式,目前价格在支撑点 104.60 之上。从一目均衡云图指标来看,七月二十六日价格区间已经从顶部进入云图,这意味着一个做空的逆转。

If BoJ announces monetary easing on Friday, then the yen will likely turn bearish. By contrast, if the BoJ doesn’t take action, then the yen will likely to be bullish, in that case the price of USDJPY will likely keep on oscillating in the downtrend channel.

如果周五日本银行宣布货币宽松,那么日元有可能进入被做空局面。相反,如果日本银行不采取行动,那么日元也许会被做多,那么美元日元价格就有可能在下行趋势通道内持续震荡。

Upside downtrend resistance at 105.30 followed by 105.45, 105.70 and 106.30.

顶部下行趋势阻力点位于 105.30,105.45,105.70 以及 106.30。

Downside supports at 104.60 followed by the 61.80% post-Brexit Fibonacci Retracement level at 103.90. and 103.0.

底部支撑点位于 104.60,以及英国脱欧后斐波那契退行 61.80% 处的 103.90 以及 103.0。

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文章来源: 爱外汇
关键字: 黄金 贵金属 外汇
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